RECYCLING RATE FORECASTS FOR 2025 AND 2030

The previous sections of this Roadmap set out how we can move towards recycling rates of 100% for aluminium cans in Europe by 2030.

However, it is important to look at what might happen in the period leading up to 2030 and beyond, as well as the potential combination of measures required to get us to this target. The Dutch management consultancy FFact has explored16 three possible scenarios for the next few years, demonstrating how recycling rates for the aluminium beverage can might change if improvement measures are implemented under each scenario. The scenarios were performed over two periods, up to 2025 and then up to 2030. The study covers the EU 27 as well as the UK, Norway, Iceland and Switzerland. The three scenarios are:

  • Carry on with the current set-up and a stepwise improvement to reach the minimum EU targets;

  • Introduce an optimised EPR system including improved separate collection & sorting and more consumer engagement;

  • Introduce DRS in all countries. 

Under each scenario, FFact has assumed that the new EU method for calculating recycling rates will apply. The three scenarios provide only estimates of the future recycling rates and neither EPR nor DRS are presented as the only one-size-fits-all solution for higher recycling rates for the aluminium beverage can across Europe.

6.1 Recycling rates in the periods up to 2025 and 2030: three scenarios

The starting point for the forecast should be the EU 2017 recycling rate of 74.5% as reported by European aluminium in 2019. However, for the needs of the study this figure was adjusted taking into account the potential impact of the new method of measurement of the recycling rates adopted under the last revision of the Waste Framework and Packaging and Packaging Waste Directives in 2018. Therefore, the new starting point is set at 68% for all three scenarios.    

1) Business as usual with stepwise improvement to reach the minimum EU targets

Under this scenario, current EPR systems would develop to allow countries to meet EU recycling targets – or national recycling targets if these are more ambitious. Countries that currently use DRS would continue and countries that have officially announced that they will introduce DRS, will do so. In most countries the legal targets have already, or nearly, been met. An increase in the amount being recycled will not compensate for the reduction in recycling rates resulting from the application of the new point of measurement adopted in the 2018 Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive. The recycling rate should reach around 71% by 2025. Importantly, it would take another five years to get to 73%. 

2) Optimised EPR including improved separate collection & sorting and more consumer engagement

Countries with EPR systems would optimise their efficiency both in the collection of aluminium beverage cans and their use of the best-performing sorting technologies to maximise recycling. Only a limited number of additional countries will introduce DRS. Under this scenario, it is possible to improve recycling rates considerably using a combination of increased collection rates within these systems and the implementation of the sorting of aluminium from residual waste destined for incineration and Mechanical-Biological Treatment installations. Improving collection rates will require significant effort but the optimisation of separation would be feasible in nearly all cases. Under this scenario, it should be possible to reach a recycling rate of 84% for the aluminium can by 2025, with slight progress taking place up to 2030, when the rate is likely to be 86%. 

3) DRS Everywhere 

Countries which have not introduced DRS will do so in 2025. In the period up to 2025, recycling rate will develop in the same way as in the ‘Business as Usual’ scenario, reaching 73% recycling. Even in this scenario the optimisation of the separation of aluminium from residual waste still has a good return on investment and will therefore be implemented.  After the introduction of DRS in 2025, however, recycling rates will grow rapidly and reach 98% in 2030.

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